The Catalans face a weakened Atletico Madrid who are yet to taste defeat at the Wanda Metropolitano this season.
Barcelona navigated a tough October fixture list comfortably with wins over Sevilla, Internazionale and Real Madrid among other results even though Lionel Messi was absent for part of the first match and all of the other two; Valencia were the only team they dropped points to, but November has been a different case entirely. A late comeback was needed to dispatch Rayo Vallecano, Inter scored a late equaliser to earn a draw at the San Siro and Real Betis shocked them with a 4-3 win at Camp Nou.
The international break has served a nice breather for key players such as Lionel Messi and Gerard Pique. It has also given the team and Ernesto Valverde chance to work out what is causing their recent issues. They have to improve defensively if they want to win silverware this season because their talented attack led by Messi can’t afford to bail them out every time. The defence has been guilty of making silly mistakes, but the midfield has been slack with their work-rate which has left the defence isolated.
Atletico are in the midst of a defensive injury crisis which could see Diego Simeone forced into using a makeshift defensive solution utilising youngster Francisco Montero and one of the midfielders. Diego Godin will definitely be out while Lucas Hernandez, Jose Gimenez and Stefan Savic are all doubts due to not receiving medical clearance, but they are back in training.
In the attacking department, Diego Costa, Koke and Thomas Lemar are finishing their recovery from injuries, although they are all expected to play. Simeone will stick with his usual 4-4-2, however, summer signing Rodri provides the midfield additional press-resistance so they should be better at maintaining possession to build up pressure.
Los Colchoneros come into this game on a five-game unbeaten run in all competitions that was sparked by a shock 4-0 loss away to Borussia Dortmund, although Atleti did get their revenge with a 2-0 home win. They are yet to lose at home this season, but they haven’t beaten Barcelona in the league since 2010, so history is against them.
The defensive injuries certainly provide Barcelona with an opportunity due to the lack of experience meaning Atleti may lack their usual stubbornness and an Atletico side that doesn’t have a solid defensive platform to work on is weak. Ernesto Valverde is likely to stick with the usual 4-3-3 formation because he rarely makes sweeping tactical changes.
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Ivan Rakitic is unavailable but Arturo Vidal is a more than capable replacement and should provide more attacking impetus than the Croatian. Philippe Coutinho is back from injury so he should slot back into the left side of the front three and re-establish his strong understanding with Jordi Alba. The Brazilian and Messi will be key in using Alba’s attacking runs to break down Atletico’s defensive shape by getting him in behind to the byline.
This will be a major test for Arthur Melo due to Atletico’s expertise at creating pressing traps to regain possession high up the pitch. Sergio Busquets will be alongside to help him, but this will show how well he is able to read the game and whether he can provide consistent service to the forwards.
Valverde could be tempted to bring in Samuel Umtiti due to how proven he is at this level even though Clement Lenglet has performed well in his absence, while Gerard Pique has to be at his best and can’t afford to be making silly individual errors as players like Griezmann will make him pay. Nelson Semedo should also start over Sergi Roberto as the La Masia graduate has been a liability at times in the right-back position.
Atletico are still a fearsome defensive unit with only eight goals conceded in the league, however, Simeone has always struggled against Barca and a weakened team means they will struggle even more than usual. Therefore, Messi should be able to inspire Barcelona to another important win as long as the defence maintains their focus.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona