In exactly two months, the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony will take place in London. The award, long dominated by Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, has become much more open since the duo left Europe, with four different winners in the past four years. Messi's triumph in 2019 was also the last time that an FC Barcelona player has won the sport's most prestigious award.
That could be about to change. Lamine Yamal is coming off an incredible season where he recorded 41 goal contributions in 45 games as Barcelona won La Liga with ease. Barcelona also lifted the Supercopa, reached the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey, and the Champions League quarter-finals. Yamal was also at the World Cup, playing in every game as Spain won the entire tournament.
However, Yamal is not without competition. Ex-Barcelona star Ousmane Dembélé is a strong candidate to win the award back-to-back, while Harry Kane could finally win after an outstanding season with Bayern Munich, among others. So, does Yamal have a strong chance to win in October?
For: The World Cup
Despite injuries, Yamal was able to participate in the World Cup, starting all but one game as Spain won. He became the youngest player to win the European Championship and the World Cup in the process, also becoming the third-youngest player to appear in a World Cup Final. In the semi-finals, he earned the penalty kick that Mikel Oyarzabal converted to give Spain the lead in an eventual 2-0 win over France.
International tournaments are often strong factors in Ballon d'Or races. Lionel Messi won the award after lifting the 2022 World Cup with Argentina, while Croatia's final appearance helped Luka Modrić win in 2018. Yamal is the only Spanish player who can be considered a strong candidate from club form, so that puts him in a great place.
Against: The World Cup
For his lofty standards, Yamal had a quiet World Cup. He scored the opener in his first start against Saudi Arabia, but that was his lone goal of the tournament. Teammates Rodri and Pau Cubarsí beat him to both the Golden Ball and the FIFA Young Player Award. He was not the star of Spain, which is fine, but won't help his odds to win.
Compared to the other candidates, he was certainly not the best performer in North America. Kane helped England reach the semi-finals with six goals and one assist, while the French trio of Dembélé, Michael Olise, and Kylian Mbappé each had elite tournaments.
For: Impact
Unlike in previous years, Barcelona had a clear star and a clear player to back in the Ballon d'Or race. In 2025, the Catalans had two strong candidates in Yamal and Raphinha, which led to the two splitting votes. In the end, Yamal finished second behind Dembélé, while Raphinha dropped to fifth.
This year, Yamal has been the face of the team. Part of this is down to Raphinha struggling to replicate his previous success, but Yamal certainly took a big step up, recording more goal contributions in fewer games. He was part of the La Liga team of the season and won the La Liga MVP, and whenever Barcelona needed a goal, they turned to Yamal.
Against: Early Exits
For most clubs, reaching the Champions League quarter-finals and the Copa del Rey semi-finals would be big achievements. It's no secret that Barcelona expects more, though, and being knocked out by Atlético twice hurts. Neither exit was Yamal's fault, and he almost led a comeback in both, but it's not going to work in his favor.
That's where the other candidates benefit. Harry Kane had a trophy-laden season with Bayern Munich and reached the Champions League semi-finals, as did his teammate, Olise. Both stepped up in big games with key goals, even though they didn't reach the final. Dembélé has an even better resume, scoring the lone PSG goal in the Champions League Final as his side won the entire tournament.
For: Pressure
At a club like Barcelona, at Yamal's age, it's no secret that there is an extraordinary amount of pressure on the young winger. The list of players to have accomplished what Yamal has, at his age, is nonexistent. That has to be considered as a factor for the Ballon d'Or.
Many players dream of playing for Barcelona, and the weight of the jersey has destroyed more than a few careers. That's what makes it so special when a player can come along and lead the team to new heights. The fact that the player who is doing so, performing weekly for one of the biggest clubs in the world, only just turned 19, is remarkable.
Against: Competition
Every team's fans act like their team's star is the only possible candidate for the award. Yamal's agent, Jorge Mendes, has already said that he is the only player who can win. Regardless of who is saying it, that's nonsense. The Ballon d'Or race has arguably never been more open and more competitive than this season.
Kane scored 70 goals and led two clubs to the semi-finals of the biggest tournaments in the world. His club teammate Olise did similarly well with Bayern and France. Dembélé helped PSG win the Champions League back-to-back and played a key role for a strong France team. Mbappé had an outstanding year as an individual, although a lack of club success.
Yamal is certainly not a lock for the award, nor is anyone else. However, there's certainly a strong case to be made for him to win and become the youngest-ever Ballon d'Or winner in the process. Barcelona fans will certainly be watching optimistically in two months.
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