Barcelona’s dream signing, Julian Alvarez is viewed as a perfect fit and primary target to succeed Robert Lewandowski as a number 9, by fans and the management alike.
On the surface, it’s a perfect signing: A World Cup winner, a clinical finisher, a good presser, and a modern frontline playmaker. But there are valid reasons, both tactically and financially, why Alvarez to Barcelona might not be the ideal choice many believe him to be.
Profile conflict
Pundits and fans agree that Alvarez is not a natural number 9 but a second striker or someone who plays just behind a true number 9. His days in Manchester City and currently in Atletico, Julian Alvarez has always played alongside someone at the top supporting him.
He has experience in playing as a sole striker as well, but for most of his footballing career at the top level, he has played alongside another striker, be it Haaland at Manchester City, or Alexander Sorloth and Antoine Griezmann at Atletico Madrid. Interestingly, Barcelona is reportedly targeting Sorloth for the very profile that Alvarez lacks.
Barcelona’s current system under Hansi Flick utilises Robert Lewandowski as a number 9 to hold the line and occasionally drop deep to combine with other players and support the build-up. Barcelona’s attacking system heavily relies on creative players like Lamine Yamal to find players in the attacking third and whip crosses.
Raphinha has been doing a tremendous job in making runs behind and finding balls from players like Lamine Yamal, Fermin Lopez and Pedri. He is overperforming his xG, and this is also the reason why Barcelona has 93% win-rate when he is on the field.
Barcelona might actually benefit more from a physically imposing number 9, such as Victor Osimhen, to provide the finishing touches, rather than another playmaker hybrid.
Barcelona already has half space specialists like Fermin Lopez and Dani Olmo. If Alvarez were to occupy the same zones, Barcelona would lose their verticality and without physical presence pinning the opposition’s backline, opposition can push their defensive line forward, suffocating Barcelona’s midfield with less space, and can make easy in behind balls to their strikers.
There is a case that modern football is moving away from the traditional striker role. In that regard, Julian Alvarez can provide more than what a traditional striker would, both in terms of creativity and output.
Why Alvarez would work
From an analytical perspective, the value of Julian Alvarez isn’t in his ability to function as a traditional striker, but as a ‘multiplier across’ the frontline.
Alvarez is among the best when it comes to dropping into the half spaces and creating numerical overloads. Against high-intensity teams, this trait of his can come in very handy in beating opposition press and playing the final ball to runners in behind like Raphinha or Lamine Yamal.
When it comes to stats, Alvarez is in the 99th percentile for ‘defensive actions by forward’. And his counter pressing in a high line Flick’s system, Alvarez can act as the first line trap and winning the ball high in the opposition half.
Where Alvarez could shine more might be in the inside forward position. Alvarez is not a traditional winger as well, but he has excelled in the inside forward position by starting wide and drifting centrally into the edge of the penalty area and creating havoc from there. This movement also creates a lot of space for overlapping fullbacks to exploit.
This is a position in Barcelona which is currently filled by Raphinha on the left-hand side, but Julian Alvarez can be the true successor to Raphinha.
Julian Alvarez can also function as a no.10, but Barcelona already possesses between-the-line specialists like Fermin Lopez and Dani Olmo. So, adding Alvarez to this position doesn’t make sense.
Barcelona’s poor finances
Barcelona’s finances in recent years have not been good and a player like Julian Alvarez would definitely cost in the range of €100 million plus. He has a long contract with Atletico with a release clause of around €500 million. Atletico Madrid are not the type of club to sell for cheap, especially not their star player.
If Barcelona are to secure his services, they must look for alternative ways to structure a deal with Atletico Madrid. If Barcelona do manage to sign Alvarez, they would be effectively pivoting from their traditional Striker role to a fluid front-three system. This would not be a major philosophical shift, as Barcelona is already accustomed to the idea of free-flowing football.
Given the finances, the question isn’t whether Alvarez is worth that kind of money, it’s about whether the money would be better spent on multiple positions, like a defensive signing to protect the backline. Names like Bastoni have come to the surface, but his signing would also cost Barcelona in the range of €60-€70 million, according to reports.
The verdict
Julian Alvarez is a special player, and he will succeed no matter where he plays. However, if Barcelona plans to use Julian Alvarez as a replacement for Robert Lewandowski, he might be the brilliant answer to the wrong question.
Julian Alvarez is 170 cm tall of pure tactical energy, and not a target man. Julian Alvarez can be the perfect ‘positional chameleon’ who can alleviate Hansi Flick’s style of play by giving more freedom and space to players in the frontline.
With his unpredictability, relentless pressing and world-class link of play, he might actually be what Barcelona needs, but not in the position they want.
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