Jorge Sampaoli should utilise a familiar set-up for Messi if he wants to get the best out of his star man.
Argentina have started the World Cup dreadfully with a disappointing 1-1 draw against newcomers Iceland and a humiliating 3-0 defeat to Croatia. The worst part about the Croatia defeat was how uninvolved Messi was. A large part of that was due to the structural issues of the team, which limited service to him. He can get them out of tight situations, but he can’t do anything without the ball.
The two matches so far have seen the team suffer completely different issues. Against Iceland, everything went through Messi and he was unable to score the vital winning goal. They then went to the other extreme against Croatia because Messi was largely a spectator. However, the rest of the team was unable to step up even though they had more space to work in because Messi was still attracting a large amount of attention.
Sampaoli needs to find a balance between these if they are to have any hope of beating Nigeria. They are highly dysfunctional, but Messi hides most of that when he is in top form. Argentina are unlikely to go far in the tournament, but a win would restore some pride and they can only deal with what is in front of them. They owe Messi a run to the latter stages after how he dragged them there in the first place.
Why switch to a 4-3-3?
Messi has played this formation for the majority of his career, so he knows it better than most. It is also a well-balanced formation, which helps the team control possession in basic terms due to the three central midfielders. It is also flexible depending on how advanced the full-backs play as well as the defensive midfielder’s average position in possession.
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The previous two performances as well as the nature of this formation and the approach associated with it would require some personnel changes. Willy Caballero is set to be dropped and the goalkeeper who is better in possession will be required out of Nahuel Guzman and Franco Armani. This is to ensure they have an 11th passing option, which will aid build-up.
Centre-backs are a weak area with Nicolas Otamendi being the only talented one in the squad, although he can be hot-headed at times. Therefore, having two means he can help cover who is chosen to partner him whether that is Marcus Rojo or Federico Fazio. This also means Nicolas Taglafico can be played in his natural position as a left-back.
Taglafico and Eduardo Salvio can provide width on either side. They will both play key roles because Salvio occupies the space Messi vacates while Taglafico provides the runs from deep which Jordi Alba is known for at Barcelona. Having a strong association here is key because of how often Messi uses this combination.
Against Nigeria they should only need a single pivot, which is likely to be either Javier Mascherano or Lucas Biglia. Alongside the pivot, Ever Banega and Giovani Lo Celso would be an excellent combination. Having this trio should allow Argentina to dictate the tempo of games through control of possession and territory.
Banega provides danger from deep because he can unlock a defence with his passing. Lo Celso is also comfortable in possession and should be able to break the lines with passes to the forward trio. He can also create openings through his dribbling as well as contributing defensively when needed to aid the pivot. This is needed against the Super Eagles because they have a number of players who can work well between the lines, although they can also be direct when needed.
The front three is a key area because they want a variety of threats to destabilise the opposition. Angel Di Maria or Cristian Pavon should be the wide threat on the left; they will ensure the opposition is stretched horizontally, which increases the space in the middle for Messi and Banega. Whoever plays in this role will have to track back defensively to give the team a strong defensive shape. Aguero provides a mobile threat in the centre while also being to make runs in behind the defence.
Utilising his set-up should take some of the attention away from Messi while allowing him the freedom to drift. Most importantly, it should provide him with consistent service in attacking areas. From there he can work his magic in the final third.
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This should be enough to get a win against Nigeria, but how it fares against top opposition is hard to say. They can only finish second in the group, which means they are likely to play France in the Round of Sixteen. Les Bleus are also quite dysfunctional, but they have the individual quality to give La Albiceleste major headaches. That is an issue for another day, though.