The Round of 32 has arrived, and stakes are sky-high as Brazil prepares to face Japan. But even before we step foot on the tactical board, every Barcelona and Brazil fan has the very same question pinging round their brain: Is Raphinha going to be fit?
Let's be blunt right from the get-go, the answer is not one that anyone is hoping for. No, we should not expect to see the electric winger on the pitch from the first minute.
The Raphinha conundrum
Raphinha is unfortunately carrying a thigh complaint and the Selecao medical team are handling it with the utmost of care. Whilst Raphinha will inevitably be pushing himself all the way behind the scenes, rushing him back for a Round of 32 tie could quite literally mean re-igniting this injury and seeing him sidelined for the entire tournament.
Our guess? He'll be kept right there on the bench. At absolute best, we might see him coming on for a brief appearance off the bench if Brazil are aggressively chasing a goal in the dying moments of the game, but not starting from the first whistle. The technical team is going to need to dig deep into the squad depth and we may actually see opportunities opening up on the right hand side.
Predicted starting XI for Brazil
This is how we think that Brazil's starting XI will look as they come up against Japan’s lightning-fast, transitional setup:
Expected Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Alisson
- Defenders: Danilo (RB), Marquinhos (CB), Gabriel Magalhaes (CB), Douglas Santos
- Midfielders: Casemiro (CDM), Bruno Guimaraes (CDM), Lucas Paqueta (CAM)
- Forwards: Vinicius Jr (LW), Matheus Cunha (ST), Rayan (RW)
Tactical takeaways
The big story here, naturally, is the absence of Raphinha, as all focus shifts to youngster Rayan. Throwing the teenage sensation into the deep end for a World Cup knockout match is always a bit of a gamble, however the young man’s sheer blistering speed on the ball and his ability to isolate any defender on a 1v1 could be just what Brazil need to unlock a packed, well-drilled Japanese defence.
The Midfield Heart: The trio of Casemiro, Bruno Guimaraes and Paqueta in the centre is a thing of beauty and is once again retained, for perfectly good reason. Brazil will heavily rely on Guimaraes to maintain the tempo and create openings for Paqueta to slide the ball through for the dangerous Cunha to finish off.
Left Wing Overload: If the focus is primarily on leaving Vinicius to deal with multiple Japanese defenders on the left side, Brazil’s attacks may largely become a thing on the left; in which case Japan will have more opportunities than one would initially think.
Defensive Stability: We'll see a very stable looking Brazil back four consisting of Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel and Santos who have an eye to closing down the opposition on the counter, which will be paramount against an extremely dangerous Japanese side on the break.
Japan should by no means be written off: they are a tactically disciplined side who are extremely dangerous when attacking at speed. However, even without Raphinha orchestrating attacks down the right-wing, this Brazilian squad has ample attacking quality and the midfield determination to get over the line.
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